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Walking Thru a
Mine Field
I want to discuss the overall investment climate briefly. If I were commissioned to begin a new investment portfolio now, beginning with cash only and no debt, having in my mind the knowledge I have (gained primarily from Rogers, Maybury and Russell), including every transaction I have made over the last ten years, very honestly I would feel like I was stepping out into a mine field. I would be in a totally different position than what I am in now. My current portfolio is nearly one-third in physical gold and silver, which is between two and three times higher than my cost. Another 20% is in cash, and most of the stocks I hold were purchased at far lower prices than their current prices. That's very different from starting from scratch now.
I'm trying to communicate how different starting now is from having been in the commodity bull for its eight year life. The first question is would I even consider starting a new portfolio now? The answer is, yes I would, but I would approach it as if I were walking through a mine field. The reason I would do it at all is that (according to the experts I trust), we are not yet half way through the commodity bull. It's very worth doing, but I would do it very slowly, carefully and cautiously. I would make sure I had at least 20% cash, diversified into the four currencies I now have. Next, I would begin a slow (likely many months, up to a year or two) dollar cost averaging program of buying gold and silver up to my target allocations. They are still undervalued and
under-owned (see
Russell Wisdom quote below).
I would buy commodity related stocks ONLY when they approach or touch the bottom of their well defined bull market trend channels. The reason is simple. At this stage of the bull market, significant downward corrections can occur without notice. One must be prepared to ride through them. All bull markets work this way. It is actually healthy, shaking out the "weak hands," as they say, and building a strong foundation for the next leg up of the bull market. The typical investor will sell on these scary corrections, either because he is using borrowed money and has no choice, or because he is terrified...maybe because he has been convinced to use a stop loss...for whatever reason, and he will do exactly opposite what he should do. He will sell weakness and buy strength, but should do the opposite. The time to sell (up to one-third only) is when the stock spikes up above the upper trend channel line, as I have previously discussed. Then I buy back when it drops back toward the lower trend channel line, or when a better value appears. I sell out completely when I believe the bull market is over. Let's hope our experts can identify that time reasonably well for us. They are very good at it.
SUMMARY: I AM CAUTIOUS AND CAREFUL, WALKING THROUGH A MINE FIELD. I WILL HOLD MY GOLD, SILVER AND CASH, AND BUY A STOCK OR PHYSICAL COMMODITY ONLY WHEN IT APPEARS TO BE A BARGAIN.
RUSSELL WISDOM
(From DOW THEORY LETTERS, February 15,2008)
"Most recently, the inflationary wave has moved full force into commodities with the prices of many commodity items like wheat and corn and soy beans and platinum and uranium and the base metals heading skyward.
"The markets are never still...money is always going somewhere. Meanwhile gold and silver are quietly "warming up" and somewhere ahead the precious metals will reflect the enormous injections of monetary inflation which have been the signature of global central banks over recent years.
"Today we find the tiny group of so-called "gold-bugs" waiting for gold to correct after its run-up of recent months. So far, the upward inflationary pressures have prevented much of a correction in gold. Below I show a monthly chart of gold which takes the metal back to 1998. It's truly amazing, but people tend to see what they want to see. Here on this chart, we study the early part of what could be one of the greatest bull markets in history, and all we hear about it is 'gold was up two dollars today,' or, 'gold was hit by a five dollar drop in late trading.'
"Somehow under a blanket of orchestrated denials and ignorant comments, the great bull market in gold has placed blinders over the public's eyes. Show this chart to anyone, but leave off the identifying heading, and ask them what the chart might represent. They'll come up with all variety of answers. But see if anyone comes up with gold as an answer. 'What's that? You say it's gold? I can't believe it. Nobody told me that gold was rising like that...and blah, blah, blah.'
"The higher gold rises without attracting mass attention, the greater the potential for the bull market. After all, gold has risen this far literally without public participation. What happens when the public finally becomes interested? As each little pattern in the daily chart is formed, amateur gold "experts" warn that, 'gold is ready for the big correction.' Fine, let the warnings continue. They serve to
allow gold to advance without any important public participation. The bull market in gold heads north with only a small number of American zealots aboard. That too will change." |
Recently Russell has mentioned silver several times, and disclosed that he is buying. He says it has a greater potential than gold.
(This is my personal belief also.)
Did you know that from January 1, 2000 to the present, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gone up about 13.6%, not including dividends (probably about 26% including dividends). That's for 7+ years. The CRB Commodity Index has risen 150% in exactly the same time.
(See Stock and Commodity Indexes link on
www.futures.tradingcharts.com). I wonder how many people know that. In 2000 there were 40,000 stock mutual funds and 5 commodity mutual funds. The American people are up to their eyeballs in stocks, and have largely missed the commodity bull. Someday stocks will be a great buy again, but probably not until after several trillion dollars flows out of mutual funds. It happened in the 1960s and 70s. It will happen again. Could stocks go up from here. Sure, but if they do, our stocks will go up too, but several academic studies (which Jim Rogers quotes in his book, Hot Commodities, page 20), show that for long periods stocks and commodities are
contra-cyclical. During a long commodity bull, stocks are usually fairly flat or down. Commodity bull markets have run their course even during stock bear markets. The studies also show that actual commodities outperform the companies that produce them (page 37).
CONCLUSION: I WILL STAY WITH MY GOLD, SILVER AND PHYSICAL COMMODITIES, AND CAUTIOUSLY BUY COMMODITY RELATED STOCKS (UP TO MY TARGET ALLOCATION FOR STOCKS) WHEN THEY ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF THE TREND CHANNEL, AND CONSIDER SELLING ONE-THIRD WHEN THEY SPIKE UP THROUGH THE TOP OF THE TREND CHANNEL, KEEPING A GOOD CASH RESERVE WHEN I SENSE A HIGHER RISK ATMOSPHERE. I SENSE THAT NOW. NOTE: THE SHORTER THE PERIOD COVERED BY THE TREND CHANNEL, THE LESS RELIABLE THIS PLAN. BEST TO HAVE A TREND CHANNEL WHICH HAS RUN 2 TO 5 YEARS.
You can find my latest portfolio at http://somehelpful.info/Money/Jay-portfolio.htm.
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