For the month of June, my portfolio was down 7.8%. For the year-to date June 30, 2009, the portfolio is exactly even (neither up nor down). Since it gained only 1/3 of 1% for 2008, it is for all intents and purposes dead even for the last 18 months. To this I say praise God! I say this because after nine years of very good average annual gains, I have given nothing back. Thus, all of my capital, including nine years of gains is in tact to participate in the next up leg in the asset classes in which I am invested.

SPECIAL NOTE: I am changing the presentation of the portfolio this month. As already mentioned, I have made no changes in it the last two months, so you are looking at the same portfolio presented in a new arrangement which I believe will improve the understanding of the working hypothesis behind my strategy. God enabling, I’ll be discussing this a lot over the next few weeks.

Here is my portfolio in its new format as of June 30, 2009:
 

CASH	32.1%	(MINIMUM 30%) (All US$)
GOLD & SILVER	34.1%	(MINIMUM 30%) Gold – 14.0%; Silver – 20.1%
MINING SHARES	14.9%	SSRI 6.2%; GDX 3.9%; SLW 1.9%; SA 1.2%; VGZ 1.0%; AUY 0.7%
NON-GOLD & SILVER PHYSICALS	18.0%	Commodity ETFs – 6.3% (RJI 1.9%; DBA 1.4%;RJA 1.3%; DAG 1.0%; RJN 0 .7%) Oil & Gas W/I – 11.7% (Non-publicly traded investment)
PUTS & CALLS	0.9%
TOTAL	100.0%

Comments

Last month my portfolio rose 12.5%. This month it fell 7.8%. Gold and silver explain most of the change for both months. Last month gold rose over 10% and silver rose over 26%. This month gold fell 5% and silver fell 14%. This is typical of the price action for gold and silver for the last 15-months…a trading range between the all-time high and a support level 30% to 50% below that high. Often called a consolidation, this type of price action cools the over enthusiasm of a strong bull market, and usually leads to a movement of the asset from “weak” hands to “strong” hands as the late-comers to the bull market get scared and sell and the value investors buy the downward corrections. A consolidation can last as long as 2-3 years, but once it’s over, a powerful platform has been established for the next major leg up in the bull market. That’s what I am looking for. I expect that once gold decisively penetrates its high of 1032 on good volume, the next powerful leg up will be underway. Nothing is guaranteed, and I have no idea what the timing might be, but that’s what I expect will happen.

Ted and I are working on a new article explaining in greater detail the working hypothesis which is the foundation of my portfolio strategy. It will also expand on the reason for the new portfolio format shown above. This article should be out in just a few days, God enabling. Stand by. 

Note: It was also Ted's idea to update the outlook of this page. He initiates most formatting changes.  He thinks some readers would like to know a little more about the gentleman who writes all these articles, and the Chinese say that a picture is worth a thousand words.
  

WORDS WE HOPE TO HEAR ONE DAY
"Well done, good and faithful servant; you were faithful over a few things,
I will make you ruler over many things.  Enter into the joy of your lord" (Mt. 25:21 NKJV)

WORDS OF WARNING
The Apostle Paul wrote, "Now godliness with contentment is great gain. We brought nothing into the world and it is certain that neither can we take anything out. So having food and clothing we will be content with that. But those who want to get rich fall into temptation and a snare and into many foolish and harmful desires, that plunge people into ruin and loss; because the love of money is a root of all kinds of evil; in their greediness some have been led away from the faith and have impaled themselves on many distresses." (1 Tim. 6:6-10 NKJV)

DISCLAIMER
The information on this page is the responsibility of Mr. E. Jay O'Keefe, but all your decisions are your own responsibility.